Sunday, May 15, 2005

I could be Oracle myself

Many many times, i made predictions and many of them were turning the way exactly the way i predicted...could i be a Oracle myself?

Okay, let me disect my predictions and validate the claims over the years. In 1997-8, after the Asia economy striked Singapore and our neighbours. I began to forsee our economical vulnerability and i began to suspect that Semiconductor and Wafer Fab's days were dwindling down. Particularly, my 1st job @National Semiconductor @Tao Payoh Lor 3 which was left with land lease of 12 years to operate at that prime area. Coupled with technology advancement made in processes and semiconductor equipment. These high value manufacturing will depart to our neighbourhood soon as "cost" in Singapore began to inflate. In 95-97, our properties market prop up due to possible Hongie and Indonesian investment in SG. Thus "cost and debt" gone up tremendously. Thus i predicted that anything that is semiconductor assembly will be gone in 10-15 years times. Thus i made a poor man switch to IT hoping to earn another survival skill.

True enough after my departure, at least 4 rounds of retrenchment cycle kicked in, the downsizing of man power and yet the the same volume (or little less) rendered us completely inefficient. These inefficiency is defined as a lot of "effort" put in to create the same outcome. Many of my colleagues who disagreed me of leaving for some unknown said Semiconc still remains for a long time were in for a rude awakening as well as colleagues one by one made their golden parachutes...

If i were to remain there....probably i would be rotting as well..

Last years, i made a prediction that NCS will merge with SCS for one reason. SCS was practically
bleeding thru its Orifice...(anal) :p And this weekend news hit my jackpot.

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/050513/15/3si0y.html

There were couples of preductions i made and i would like to list some down...

1. Taiwan and China unification within this generation. I had this prediction made many years ago and my travel savvy friend aka Tiko Seng who made numerous visit to mainland and Taiwan said it was impossible. But my feeling differ, after all both ends were chinese and family once and the Chinese were prepared to take the "Formosa island" by force thus their military doctrine showed their ambition. President Chen was playing his card to extend his presidency, otherwise he knew the day were coming soon. With Lian Chen making a historic visit to Beijing significantly bridged both ends there always a day....As writting, Chen Shui-Bian's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had won 42.5% of the vote with Opposition Nationalist Party garnering 38.9% of the vote does switch to disadvantage. But my bet of unification will continue to play on..

2. North Korea and South Korea unification, technically impossible over many years. Somehow i just had a feeling that possible unification will materialise in 2 generations time. Of course it will benefit South Korea more depite it early shackle of absording North Korean's debt and deficit (if they ever have, no inside news) As North Korea will be a focus of cheap labor and nation rebuilding, it will enabled Chaebor likes LG, Samsung and Hyundai to outsource inward than outward to mainland China which made economical senses... So we shall see..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4546799.stm

3. Dual Citizenship in Singapore, hard to swallow right? Yes, one of my prediction for Singapore to offer such national duality option. Why? well...to capture the leaving families back to the island and converting PRs into Citizen at the expense of garnering more "foreign talent" in the island. Everyone knows, this island is getting more expensive to live and Gov have been thinking how to prevent these "foreign saving" outflow? Easy way out is to keep the property market inflate and hold these people as "debt" or liability. Smart Foreigners will only rent not buy... and promote SPG-ism to keep Ang Moh happy by having their little head penetrate with little resistance. Easy was'nt it? The Citizen Duality will be 2nd defence to capture these range of people. My Ang Moh boss is smart to "rent" his apartment at Tanjong Rhu while having his own property @Kota Baru...darmmit, one just got away..

4. Singaporean going outward to work, hahaha...as influx of cheap labor from China and India fighting over the same work pool. Local Singaporean (Daring one like me lah) are beginning to seek outdoor to extend or groom their career. As our slight advantage in work ethnic (few only) some will find it easier to work and seed their root there. That's where Para 3 becames a big advantage and reason for exercising national duality. Additionally divorce rate will go up as Singapore men found foreign women more accomodating..haha (one prediction leh) Those new generation majored in Biomedical studies will be in for a rude awakening as cheaper, more experienced Biomedical "bloodied" Indian took their "lunchbox", ops sorry... Malaysia is fighting us Ringgit for Sing dollar for domination of Biomedical research and manufacturing. Christened as BioMalaysia...did'nt i said Malaysia Boleh?

5. Angry society.....yes yes...i want to see this happening as disgruntled new generation found new truth in their parent's blind faith and stupidity in one party policy. Being outspoken, "intelligent", internet savvy and early run-in with Chinese nationalist in school days is not going to made existing policy maker easy. I pretty sure.....they better start to learn how to lie and made public speech in a more "convincing" way. The new generation of Sing-anger is not going to be easier to deal with.

9 Comments:

At 9:32 PM, Blogger DARLing said...

u shall be named Oracle Takashi

 
At 12:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

yar .. the oracle that actually consult other oracles ...

 
At 9:24 AM, Blogger DARLing said...

wahahhaa
two oracles on my list

 
At 1:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

there's only ONE oracle...you all must fight for the position. don't kill each other HAHAHA

 
At 10:46 PM, Blogger DARLing said...

wahhaha
now one come ORACLE elaine hehe

 
At 12:59 AM, Blogger Dalicia said...

i'm not the oracle!! i don't want ppl to come after me :P

it's either marcus or rawbean...vote please! we still live in a democratic society? if not, i'll appoint lor...hehe

 
At 1:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Eh, i not oracle! I'm all ya Pa Pa, I come to earth to take back my ppl's control ...

 
At 8:08 AM, Blogger Dalicia said...

okay MARCUS is the ORACLE.

Hey, Rawbean..you're supposed to be THE ALIEN KING. Not papa!! PapaSan ah? You're pimping BOYS?
heeheh

 
At 9:51 AM, Blogger DARLing said...

Takashi Kim is the oracle.
Raw bean is the King
ya lor wat u papa..

 

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